Every day we are subjected to numbers and graphs on the trend of the pandemic in our country and few other data on the pandemic situation in some other nation, nothing else in the world.
Considering that the trend of the pandemic would have exceeded the peak, at least in the northern hemisphere, it is possible to make other broader observations, of a global nature, on the aspects of this pandemic.
Just to to see better how our country is positioned compared to the rest of the planet and if from these observations other considerations can also be drawn.
Trend of deaths compared to the average age of populations
 |
| Trend of deaths vs average age of the population |
The trend of deaths, compared to the average age of populations and their fertility rate, observed in the totality of 154 nations that have more than one million inhabitants, shows interesting aspects. (*)
It is evident that the number of dead
it seems that it is growing more in nations with a higher average age, as one should expect from a disease which has been found to affect older people with more serious effects. The death toll remains under a thousand in countries with an average age of less than 30 years, and can increase, but it is not said that this will happen, in countries with a higher average age.
In this perspective, Italy, which has an average population age of 47, in the present state, is at the sad summit of the point cloud given by the combination of deaths and average age. China (38 years of average age) has fewer deaths, and is located within the cloud of the general trend, while the USA seems to have an excess of deaths, considering that they are also characterized by an average age of 38 years, decidedly Germany is better positioned and with an average age of 46 reported a number of deaths equal to a quarter of Italy.
Trend of deaths compared to the fertility rate
Even more clear is the trend of the deceased compared to fertility, that is the birth rate of the populations.
 |
| Trend of deaths vs fertility rate |
All nations with more than a thousand deaths have a fertility rate that does not exceed 2.4, and among these are Italy, China, the USA and Germany.
Also, in this area with low birth rates, there are nations with a low number of deaths and an index of low fertility, while mortality in nations with a fertility higher than 4 is always low, at least until today.
Another observations, although making a question on the perfect correct statistical validity of all the numbers used, especially as regards the correctness of the numbers of the least developed countries, it would seem that the impact of the Covid 19 can be differentiated between geographical areas, according to the general conditions of population demography.
This can be an important datum to evaluate the impact of the epidemic on the African continent, characterized by areas with a young and fast growing population, this could be less than feared.
In any case, it is certainly data and observations to be reviewed, for a possible confirmation in a season.
(*) The statistical data, then processed, are those present on 1 May 2020, on the site https://www.worldometers.info/
Interesting, needs to dive in details
ReplyDelete